Too little, and way too soon
On December 21, Governor Jay Inslee announced updated guidelines for reopening in-person classes at K-12 schools. Under the plan, counties with a 14-day average greater than 350 cases/100,000 population, and with positivity rates greater than 10% would be able to reopen. This new plan he says, is based on recent data showing dramatic drops in disease transmission when safety measures are put in place.
The following Friday, the Tacoma School District jumped on board, announcing limited classes for in-person learning starting January 19. Beginning with kindergartners in groups of up to fifteen students, the plan will expand over the course of the following month to include preschool and then later, first and second graders.
The key principles of the Governor’s new plan, are excluding sick people through screening, using cohorts, using social distancing, handwashing, wearing masks and a number of other now standard measures.
Missing from the Governor’s plan is mandatory coronavirus testing. There’s no requirement students/staff must provide negative test results before starting school initially. And there’s no requirement for surveillance testing during school. Testing under the plan, is voluntary when and if used; parents may opt out, at will.
This approach provides a stark contrast to schools which have successfully reopened for in-person learning.
One good example are New York State’s schools. The reopening plan developed under Gov. Andrew Cuomo provides that students must show a negative test result before being allowed in school. The plan also requires mandatory surveillance testing for 25% of the school community (students, teachers, staff) every week. Students failing to submit to testing are required to use remote learning, with very narrow exceptions. It should be noted their current positivity rate is about 6.1%. There are nearly 2.8 million students in New York’s K-12 schools.
Another example is Purdue University. Under Purdue’s plan, all students and staff are required to test negative before arrival on campus, as well as submit to random surveillance tests. Purdue’s goal is to test 10% of the campus each week. Using these strategies, they completed the last semester without having to close down. Their campus positivity rates have been just over 4%, even though Indiana’s overall rates are much higher. They have approximately 50,000 people on campus.
These plans exemplify a proactive approach. Governor Inslee’s plan is reactive, relying solely on preventative measures, dealing with outbreaks after they’ve had a chance to get established.
The need for testing is particularly acute in Pierce County right now because of the high incidence of community spread, and the high virus levels. We’re currently averaging 463.3 cases/100,000 population with a positivity rate of 12.0%, – some of the highest rates in the state. And with the virus close to exponential growth, 87.9% of all ICU beds in our region are occupied, leaving little extra capacity for new cases.
The Governor’s plan also needs to have a cut-off for when positivity levels are too high. Bearing on this, the Washington Post reports on a new study focusing on schools in Washington and Michigan. The study suggests that when community infection rates are low, little transmission occurs in K-12 schools. But when infection rates in the community are high – like here in Washington state – in-person classes do tend to contribute to community spread.
While all the different metrics have decreased somewhat in the past week, Pierce County has still blown way past the “high” levels established in the Governor’s plan. And with the potential for a New Year’s surge coming in the next week or two, potentially we’re headed much higher. And worse yet, the new, more contagious UK strain has found its way to the United States, and will likely spread.
So, with the pandemic raging on, our present situation is tenuous at best. A month from now we could be at essentially the same place we are today. Or just as easily, we could be facing a situation similar to what’s happening in Los Angeles – where health care is rationed, and they’re setting up Covid ICUs in hospital gift shops and parking lots.
We must be proactive. Mandatory testing of all students and staff is absolutely essential for schools to be safely reopened; to allow students or staff to refuse coronavirus testing is patently irresponsible, because it jeopardizes everyone else. And if adequate testing is unavailable for whatever reason, students should remain on remote learning.
Governor Inslee’s plan is premature, and as it sits, is a good way to put out the fire after the house has burned down.
Plans for in-person classes should be put on hold until the Governor’s plan is reworked, and the dust settles from the coming surge. We need to find out precisely where we’re headed with the pandemic before we act. That’s the prudent course.
Previously published in Tacoma Weekly