I don’t believe wireless and fiber will ever really compete. I think there will always be a place for both. They both have unique attributes: wi-fi’s portability, and fiber’s speeds. Each has it’s own place – they compliment each other.
The main problem with wireless – at least at this early stage of the game – is that it just can’t provide enough bandwidth to effectively compete with fiber.
I haven’t really kept close tabs, but it seems like most of the metro wi-fi projects are advertising speeds ranging between 1-3 mb/s.
Now 3 mb/s may be just great for web browsing, email and light gaming (assuming the latency isn’t too terrible). But that’s about it. I wouldn’t go downloading the latest Linux distros or anything on a connection like that. Much less downloading a movie or loads of mp3’s or programs.
So these 3 mb/s wi-fi networks are – at least in my humble opinion – obsolete even before they’re even operating. It just isn’t enough bandwidth.
Look where the push is going: FIOS and Cablevision and everyone on the cutting edge here in the US are upgrading to 15-30 mb/s speeds even as we speak. Hopefully within a year or two, 15 mb/s will be the standard for the entire US with 30 mb/s as the extreme tier.
Then overseas, you’ve got Hong Kong offering symmetrical 1 GB/s fiber service. In Korea and Japan, 100 mb/s isn’t uncommon. And they’re laying a lot of fiber in Europe.
I would hope that within the next 5 years or so, the US will finally be up to where Korea and Japan are now (yeah, Hong Kong’s way outa reach) – and 100 mb/s service will be standard.
So if that’s where wired networks are going to be in five years, then a 3 mb/s wi-fi service, at least to me, seems like too little too late.
Now if they made everything conform to 802.11G that’d future proof the network a bit. But as far as I’ve heard, the speeds are nowhere near that right now.
Even if they were able to make 54 mb/s available over the entire service area (which is unlikely) that’s still not going to last too long – probably less than 5 years.
The future is almost here: At 54 mb/s, a 7 GB movie would take 18 minutes to download. At 100 mb/s it takes 10 minutes; at 200 mb/s (802.11n) it takes 5 minutes, and in Hong Kong right now, it takes less than one minute.
For a roaming connection, wi-fi is just great.
But at least in my home, I will always have a wired network – for the heavy-duty stuff.
I have both right now: I have an 8 mb/s cable connection tied to a 1 GB/s Ethernet LAN (with six computers and an Xbox), along with an 802.11G wireless access point for my son’s lap top and the computer in the garage (was lazy, didn’t want to run cable there), plus for my kid’s friends.
My wi-fi segment works just fine and generally has good coverage around my place – but if I was going to do any relatively big download, it would be on my wired network.
As long as there’s a large discrepancy in maximum bandwidth, fiber (and wired networks generally) will have a place.